Damien Leith wins Australian Idol!

I've always been a fan of talent shows and for that reason have always been annoyed by Australian Idol. The very premise of the program places 'star quality' ahead of talent as evidenced by the success of such mediocre singers as Shannon Noll (who I'm sure is a very nice chap).

And as the Dean Geyer roadshow rolled on, I feared that Australian Idol 2006 was going the same way. This young man certainly had the package—boyish good looks, sultry eyes, good physique. The trouble was, he was a pretty average singer. The voice was reasonable, but his singing was utterly devoid of emotion. There was nothing behind those eyes even when delivering the most passionate numbers. Yet a few flashes of his six-pack in popular magazines seemed to be enough to propel him towards stardom.

And then something amazing happened which renewed my faltering faith in the Australian public—the viewers voted pretty-boy Dean off the program in favour of the two genuinely talented contestants remaining, Jessica Mauboy, the slightly frumpy Indonesian/Aboriginal schoolgirl from the Northern Territory with the huge voice, deep musical insight and delightful smile and Damien Leith, the shy, buck-toothed Irishman with the soaring falsetto and even deeper musical insight.

And tonight it was Damien who went on, incredibly, to become Australian Idol. I say incredibly, because this unassuming family man really was the most talented person on the program, probably ever, and he is in many ways the antithesis of a superstar. He's average looking, slightly dorky and not exactly cool. And his performances are introspective affairs. He doesn't 'work' an audience so much as carry on an intimate private conversation with a song and invite the audience in. The end result is musicianship of the highest order.

I hang around with lots of classically trained singers (indeed, as the old engineering joke goes, I are one), and I can imagine that in the next few days I'll hear several people criticise Damien's rendering of Puccini's Nessun Dorma. And they'd be right, in part. I personally know a dozen people who could sing that aria better than Damien Leith (although he did it pretty well), but I can guarantee that none of them would be able to make music of Chris Isaak's Wicked Game or Radiohead's Creep. And therein lies Damien's special gift—he seems to have the knack of enabling people to see into the heart of a song, any sort of song, in a way that a pretty-boy with 'star quality' would probably be unable to do. I raise my hat to you, Damien, and wish you all the best. And when you become rich, I'd appreciate it if you paid me back for the 20 calls I made on your behalf to the voting line, but there's no hurry.

Jessica, too, will go far. For one so young she has genuine talent. I hope she stops trying to emulate Whitney Huston and Mariah Carey with their ridiculous warbling and vocal gymnastics, though. Sometimes a songwriter works very hard to select a particular note and the audience deserves to hear it rather than the 257 other notes that Mariah Carey chooses to put in its place.

And as for Dean Geyer, nothing I say will deprive him of success. And I do believe that as he matures he may well learn to sing with the emotion that will make that success deserved.

Melbourne Cup wrap

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

What a great race it was. The pace was very easy early on, but from the 1200 m mark they kicked on and the field really spread out. Yeats was ridden very handy and looked well-placed, but seemed to go too early and struggle under the weight. He fought back gamely for 7th. Tawqeet had been a veterinary query before the race and did not figure at all. But the two Japanese horses were fantastic, and Delta Blues held on gamely when he looked like he would be pipped at the post. I commented in my Late Mail that the two were inseparable on form so Delta Blues looked great value. What a tremendous staying performance from both horses, and a finish reminiscent of an immortal Cox Plate from some years ago involving Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star.

My eight top rated horses included 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th——not a bad result.

Melbourne Cup Late Mail

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

With Efficient scratched, the big movers in the market are Mandela and Maybe Better, both horses I rated earlier. There's also money going on Pop Rock and I expect him to shorten further nearer the jump. The market seems to have really favoured Pop Rock over Delta Blues, although I suspect there's not that much between them. That makes the lengthening Delta Blues pretty good value, but he likes the going firm.

There have been showers at Flemington this morning, and although probably no more than 1 mm has fallen, that's enough to keep the track rated at Dead at the moment, and even if that rating is modified to Good pre-race, which is a slight possibility, the sting has definitely been taken out of the turf. That is likely to favour UK horses such as Keats and also Geordieland, who has not previously been in my reckoning. Note that Tawqeet and Pop Rock have both had success on slower tracks. as have Zipping, Art Success, Mandela and Maybe Bettter.

With Efficient out of the field there is a lack of pace in the field, and only a few horses who are willing to take a lead and spread out the field. Whilst one might think that would favour the fast horses, who will be able to run ove the top in the final stretch, in reality it means that the field is likely to bunch up out of the gates and hold position for some time and this will cause problems for horses who get back early. Tawqeet, Maybe Better and Pop Rock are all runners who like to sit midfield or further back and may be inconvenienced by the pace. Yeats, Geordieland and Mandela prefer to race handy, so may well be suited.

So my original two tips of Tawqeet and Yeats stand. With Efficient out of the running, I think Pop Rock and Maybe Better might also come into the frame. And I am now putting Geordieland into my reckoning.

To win:
4. Tawqeet
1. Yeats
from 12. Pop Rock and 23. Maybe Better

Also in the mix:

13. Zipping
2. Delta Blues
21. Mandela
5. Geordieland

Melbourne Cup Tips 2006

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

The Melbourne Cup is here again, and as usual, I'm nailing my colours to the mast despite the ignominy of having struck out at Flemington last year.

So here are my horses to consider or forget :

YEATS is the top weight for good reason. He is quite simply the best horse in the field. That said, he's not raced at this track, has travelled badly in the past and rumour has it is a little unsettled. Also, the great UK staying races tend to be slower and have much smaller fields. I think if he gets forward early from his good barrier then he will figure at the finish.

TAWQEET is untried at the distance, but ran home very strongly at both the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup, so should not be a worry. The one to beat.

ZIPPING was poor in the Caulfield then had a good win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup which suggests he might figure. Also being ridden by Glen Boss who has won the last 3 Melbourne Cups.

ART SUCCESS is perhaps the best longshot in the field. Has won over the distance in the Brisbane Cup on a dead track and came home strongly in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last week to finish 5th having been 11th at the 400m mark. He was carrying 58 kilos then and only carries 51.5 in the Cup which is a huge advantage. As I write it's showing around 45/1 on the TAB and seems great value.

MANDELA is untried over the distance, but had a solid win in the Geelong Cup over 2400m racing handily all the way. He's 2 kg better off than that run and has very in-form jockey Craig Williams on board which makes him a lightweight chance.

EFFICIENT is also untried over the 3200, but comes off 5 wins in a row and a devestating run in the Victoria Derby at this track on the weekend. He was 10th at the 400m mark and finished the 2500 m race more than 2 lengths clear. He has a taste for victory at the moment and as a 3 year old is surely the sentimental favourite. But bear in mind that the last horse of his age to win the Cup was...well, I forget, but it was a very long time ago and he's carrying weight for age for the first time which may be harsh.

MAYBE BETTER was a late inclusion after his great win in the 2500 m Saab Quality from 8th at the 400 m mark. Question over the distance but likes this track. Was carrying 57 then and is now 7 kg better off, but that has forced a change of rider. Not a big fan of Chris Munce who is the new whip, but the horse has real claims.

POP ROCK and DELTA BLUES are the two Japanese entrants attracting a lot of interest in the market. Both classy animals with good form at home, but we have only the Caulfield Cup to go on here. Pop Rock charged home there for 7th but seemed to have trouble cornering earlier. Delta Blues was trapped very wide and fought on for 3rd. Both have real claims but I'm not sure where to put them in my book. I'll be watching them pre-race and in the markets.

My final tips (which at the time of writing look very much like the market on UniTab):

To win:
4. Tawqeet
24. Efficient
1. Yeats

In the mix:
12. Pop Rock
13. Zipping
2. Delta Blues
23. Maybe Better
21. Mandela

Best long shot: 18. Art Success

Good luck, and as always, I'll take the credit if I'm right and deny all responsibility if wrong!