Melbourne Cup wrap

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

What a great race it was. The pace was very easy early on, but from the 1200 m mark they kicked on and the field really spread out. Yeats was ridden very handy and looked well-placed, but seemed to go too early and struggle under the weight. He fought back gamely for 7th. Tawqeet had been a veterinary query before the race and did not figure at all. But the two Japanese horses were fantastic, and Delta Blues held on gamely when he looked like he would be pipped at the post. I commented in my Late Mail that the two were inseparable on form so Delta Blues looked great value. What a tremendous staying performance from both horses, and a finish reminiscent of an immortal Cox Plate from some years ago involving Bonecrusher and Our Waverley Star.

My eight top rated horses included 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 7th——not a bad result.

Melbourne Cup Late Mail

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

With Efficient scratched, the big movers in the market are Mandela and Maybe Better, both horses I rated earlier. There's also money going on Pop Rock and I expect him to shorten further nearer the jump. The market seems to have really favoured Pop Rock over Delta Blues, although I suspect there's not that much between them. That makes the lengthening Delta Blues pretty good value, but he likes the going firm.

There have been showers at Flemington this morning, and although probably no more than 1 mm has fallen, that's enough to keep the track rated at Dead at the moment, and even if that rating is modified to Good pre-race, which is a slight possibility, the sting has definitely been taken out of the turf. That is likely to favour UK horses such as Keats and also Geordieland, who has not previously been in my reckoning. Note that Tawqeet and Pop Rock have both had success on slower tracks. as have Zipping, Art Success, Mandela and Maybe Bettter.

With Efficient out of the field there is a lack of pace in the field, and only a few horses who are willing to take a lead and spread out the field. Whilst one might think that would favour the fast horses, who will be able to run ove the top in the final stretch, in reality it means that the field is likely to bunch up out of the gates and hold position for some time and this will cause problems for horses who get back early. Tawqeet, Maybe Better and Pop Rock are all runners who like to sit midfield or further back and may be inconvenienced by the pace. Yeats, Geordieland and Mandela prefer to race handy, so may well be suited.

So my original two tips of Tawqeet and Yeats stand. With Efficient out of the running, I think Pop Rock and Maybe Better might also come into the frame. And I am now putting Geordieland into my reckoning.

To win:
4. Tawqeet
1. Yeats
from 12. Pop Rock and 23. Maybe Better

Also in the mix:

13. Zipping
2. Delta Blues
21. Mandela
5. Geordieland

Melbourne Cup Tips 2006

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

The Melbourne Cup is here again, and as usual, I'm nailing my colours to the mast despite the ignominy of having struck out at Flemington last year.

So here are my horses to consider or forget :

YEATS is the top weight for good reason. He is quite simply the best horse in the field. That said, he's not raced at this track, has travelled badly in the past and rumour has it is a little unsettled. Also, the great UK staying races tend to be slower and have much smaller fields. I think if he gets forward early from his good barrier then he will figure at the finish.

TAWQEET is untried at the distance, but ran home very strongly at both the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup, so should not be a worry. The one to beat.

ZIPPING was poor in the Caulfield then had a good win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup which suggests he might figure. Also being ridden by Glen Boss who has won the last 3 Melbourne Cups.

ART SUCCESS is perhaps the best longshot in the field. Has won over the distance in the Brisbane Cup on a dead track and came home strongly in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last week to finish 5th having been 11th at the 400m mark. He was carrying 58 kilos then and only carries 51.5 in the Cup which is a huge advantage. As I write it's showing around 45/1 on the TAB and seems great value.

MANDELA is untried over the distance, but had a solid win in the Geelong Cup over 2400m racing handily all the way. He's 2 kg better off than that run and has very in-form jockey Craig Williams on board which makes him a lightweight chance.

EFFICIENT is also untried over the 3200, but comes off 5 wins in a row and a devestating run in the Victoria Derby at this track on the weekend. He was 10th at the 400m mark and finished the 2500 m race more than 2 lengths clear. He has a taste for victory at the moment and as a 3 year old is surely the sentimental favourite. But bear in mind that the last horse of his age to win the Cup was...well, I forget, but it was a very long time ago and he's carrying weight for age for the first time which may be harsh.

MAYBE BETTER was a late inclusion after his great win in the 2500 m Saab Quality from 8th at the 400 m mark. Question over the distance but likes this track. Was carrying 57 then and is now 7 kg better off, but that has forced a change of rider. Not a big fan of Chris Munce who is the new whip, but the horse has real claims.

POP ROCK and DELTA BLUES are the two Japanese entrants attracting a lot of interest in the market. Both classy animals with good form at home, but we have only the Caulfield Cup to go on here. Pop Rock charged home there for 7th but seemed to have trouble cornering earlier. Delta Blues was trapped very wide and fought on for 3rd. Both have real claims but I'm not sure where to put them in my book. I'll be watching them pre-race and in the markets.

My final tips (which at the time of writing look very much like the market on UniTab):

To win:
4. Tawqeet
24. Efficient
1. Yeats

In the mix:
12. Pop Rock
13. Zipping
2. Delta Blues
23. Maybe Better
21. Mandela

Best long shot: 18. Art Success

Good luck, and as always, I'll take the credit if I'm right and deny all responsibility if wrong!

Arsenal players depend on grass

First posted on OzArsenal.

It's not something that's talked about much, but the evidence is clear—a number of Arsenal players have a problem with grass. Away from the compact, slick surface of Highbury which so suits our intricate (overly intricate, many of us would say) passing game, our performances last year were often poor and no player was more guilty than our talismanic leader, Monsieur Henry. For years we had to put up with the inconvenience and slight embarrassment of Bergkamp's inability to fly. Now, it seems, TH14 has topped the non-flying Dutchman by becoming unable to play well after travelling on the team bus.

If, God forbid, we were Tottenham, we might have come up with a conspiracy theory by now. Perhaps our North London rivals have fiddled the bus's air-conditioning and a complaint to the FA is in order. But there are probably more logical explanations.

technorati tags:Arsenal, Football

For the media, one of the more seductive theories is that many of our players are delicate prima donnas beguiled by the bright lights of London, who don't like playing with the rougher boys in places they can't find in their Fodor's Guides, like Bolton, for example. And whilst there is some truth in that, I think the real problem is much simpler—we play the purest football in the world, a game dependent on precisely weighted passes and deft touches and utterly confounded by uneven, bobbling, poorly watered pitches. By contrast, teams who like to hoof the ball upfield are not reliant on the pitch and can transfer their football anywhere with equal ugliness.

On top of that, we are a team which relies on pace all over the park, and whilst you'd think we'd play better in larger parks where there is more room to run and get into space, the opposite is true. It's much less work for Henry to run all over Highbury than Stade de France, perhaps one of the reasons he is often close to invisible on the world stage, the recent WC final notwithstanding.

As we head into a new season at a new ground, it is my very strong belief that the biggest variable for us this season will not be Bergie's retirement, the departure of Sol, the possible departure of Cashley or the arrival of the little Mozart. It will be how we adapt to our new, larger playing surface because, I fear, it will be like playing away every week for several months. And the larger crowds may actually be quieter as they'll be in a bigger space and further from the pitch and players. If we settle well at Ashburton Grove, it may lift our away performances. If not, it may relegate our home performances to that level. And remember, our away record last season was the same as Everton, who finished eleventh.

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Whatever the players do on the new turf, there'll be no doubt that Arsenal's ground staff will have done their job to the highest level. Head Groundsman Paul Burgess was crowned Groundsman of the Year last year for the second year in a row. That's an honourable tradition at Highbury, where Paul's predecessor, Steve Braddock, also received this award before moving on to supervise the development of Arsenal's training ground.

No expense has been spared to make the Grove pitch once again the best in the world. It's a DD GrassMaster Desso pitch which incorporates a combination of synthetic grass fibres with real grass to create a playing surface with an extremely natural feel. Several other EPL clubs are using this surface, including Liverpool, West Ham and Villa, but Arsenal is the first to combine it with the Stadium Grow Lighting system (SGL) as used by PSV Eindhoven. This system will be used to increase light levels on the pitch, especially in winter where the lights will run virtually 24 hours a day, guaranteeing a summer quality pitch all year round. This system has already been successfully trialled at Highbury last season.

Happy Birthday, Clive

No, it's not my birthday, but that's less than three months away, so feel free to start saving now. However, there is another Clive on the other side of the world who is celebrating his birthday today. I don't know his surname or anyting else about him, only that on this day last year my friend Sebastian and I were in the Cinque Port town of Sandwich in Kent, and came across this sign attached at the base of another sign:

Purely by accident, I happened to find this picture today and noticed it's exactly a year on. So Happpy Birthday, Clive, whoever and wherever you are!

technorati tags:England, UK