7 November 2006

Melbourne Cup Late Mail

> 2007 Melbourne Cup tips may be found here.

With Efficient scratched, the big movers in the market are Mandela and Maybe Better, both horses I rated earlier. There's also money going on Pop Rock and I expect him to shorten further nearer the jump. The market seems to have really favoured Pop Rock over Delta Blues, although I suspect there's not that much between them. That makes the lengthening Delta Blues pretty good value, but he likes the going firm.

There have been showers at Flemington this morning, and although probably no more than 1 mm has fallen, that's enough to keep the track rated at Dead at the moment, and even if that rating is modified to Good pre-race, which is a slight possibility, the sting has definitely been taken out of the turf. That is likely to favour UK horses such as Keats and also Geordieland, who has not previously been in my reckoning. Note that Tawqeet and Pop Rock have both had success on slower tracks. as have Zipping, Art Success, Mandela and Maybe Bettter.

With Efficient out of the field there is a lack of pace in the field, and only a few horses who are willing to take a lead and spread out the field. Whilst one might think that would favour the fast horses, who will be able to run ove the top in the final stretch, in reality it means that the field is likely to bunch up out of the gates and hold position for some time and this will cause problems for horses who get back early. Tawqeet, Maybe Better and Pop Rock are all runners who like to sit midfield or further back and may be inconvenienced by the pace. Yeats, Geordieland and Mandela prefer to race handy, so may well be suited.

So my original two tips of Tawqeet and Yeats stand. With Efficient out of the running, I think Pop Rock and Maybe Better might also come into the frame. And I am now putting Geordieland into my reckoning.

To win:
4. Tawqeet
1. Yeats
from 12. Pop Rock and 23. Maybe Better

Also in the mix:

13. Zipping
2. Delta Blues
21. Mandela
5. Geordieland

Go to eebahgum!

No comments: